葛洛奇

Q1:    Your Excellency, Taiwan's economy is a success story admired around the world. Another impressive success in recent years has been Taiwan's democratic achievements. However, Taiwan is considered by Beijing's government as a "renegade province." This is a cause for permanent tensions and threats against your island from the mainland. How do you cope with these dangers?

A:    I will answer your question from the historical and legal viewpoints. There has been an impasse in cross-strait relations because the Beijing authorities ignore the very fact that the two sides are two different jurisdictions and that the Chinese mainland continues to pose a military threat against us. The historical fact is that since the establishment of the Chinese communist regime in 1949, it has never ruled the territories under the Republic of China (ROC) jurisdiction: Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu.

In the 1991 constitutional amendment, Article 10 of the Additional Articles (now Article 11) limits the area covered by the Constitution to that of the Taiwan area, and recognizes the legitimacy of the rule of the People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland. Articles 1 and 4 of the Additional Articles clearly stipulate that the members of the Legislative Yuan and the National Assembly shall be elected from the Taiwan area only.

The 1992 constitutional amendments further stipulate in Article 2 of the Additional Articles that the president and the vice president shall be popularly elected by the people of the Taiwan area. Thus, the reconfigured national agencies represent only the people of the Taiwan area. The legitimacy of the rule of the country comes from the mandate of the Taiwan people and has nothing to do with the people on the mainland.

The 1991 constitutional amendments have designated cross-strait relations as a state-to-state relationship or at least a special state-to-state relationship, rather than an internal relationship between a legitimate government and a renegade group, or between a central government and a local government. Thus, the Beijing authorities' characterization of Taiwan as a "renegade province" is historically and legally untrue.

In the face of cross-strait developments, we will continue to prudently advance cross-strait exchanges and actively promote dialogue and consultations. Moreover, we will continue to further develop our democratic system, pursue stable economic growth, and actively strengthen contacts with the international community, so as to ensure our survival and development.

We believe that consolidating mutual trust through exchanges and fostering stable relations through mutual trust is the most effective way to resolve a crisis. Taiwan and the Chinese mainland should develop a win-win relationship based upon reciprocity and mutual benefit.

Q2:    Declaring Taiwan an independent state does not seem to be a realistic option, and Beijing's "one country, two systems" formula is not acceptable for the majority of people in Taiwan. Is there any room for compromise between these two lines of policy? And if there is, what does it look like?

A:    I have already explained very clearly that the Republic of China has been a sovereign state since it was founded in 1912. Moreover, in 1991, amendments to the Constitution designated cross-strait relations as a special state-to-state relationship. Consequently, there is no need to declare independence. The resolution of cross-strait issues hinges on the issue of different systems. We cannot look at issues related to the two sides simply from the perspective of unification or independence. Progression from an integration of systems to a gradual political integration is the most natural and most suitable choice to guarantee the welfare of all Chinese people. At present, the ROC has become the first democracy in the Chinese community. We would like to take a more active role in the Chinese mainland's modernization process; therefore, we hope that the authorities there can proceed with democratic reform to create favorable conditions for democratic unification. This is the direction of our efforts. We want to maintain the status quo, and maintain peace with Beijing on this foundation.

Q3:    The treatment of Hong Kong as a "Special Administrative Zone, " since its handover from the British in summer 1997, and the treatment of Macau after its return from Portugal in December this year, may be considered by the Chinese mainland as a rehearsal for the larger event of taking over Taiwan in a peaceful manner. Isn't this a tempting idea for the outside world--by solving the Chinese problem that otherwise poses as a great long-term danger to your region?

A:    The root of the Chinese problem affecting regional security lies not in the return of Hong Kong and Macau to the Chinese mainland, nor whether Taiwan will return to its fold. The ROC on Taiwan is not a colony of any nation. This is how Taiwan differs from Hong Kong and Macau. The crucial question is the Chinese mainland's overemphasis on nationalism and its failure to implement democracy. The Chinese mainland has not only conducted smear campaigns and saber rattling against us, but has also refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. Furthermore, it has tried everywhere to minimize the ROC's international presence. This overbearing attitude does not promote a harmonious relationship across the Strait, nor is it beneficial to stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The Chinese mainland has placed an excessive emphasis on nationalism and continuously advances military expansionism. Under these circumstances, there can be no doubt that such acts would arouse suspicion from neighboring countries. A long-term resolution is to replace totalitarian rule on the mainland with democracy, thus easing tension in the region.

The Chinese mainland's promise of a "one country, two systems" formula for Hong Kong and Macau is irrelevant to Taiwan, since the formula contains intrinsic contradictions, violates the basic principles of democracy, and denies the existence of the Republic of China. Although the Chinese mainland has attempted to apply the "one country, two systems" formula to the ROC, as it has in Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan is neither Hong Kong nor Macau. Hong Kong and Macau were colonies, but the ROC is a sovereign, independent state. Taiwan is basically different from Hong Kong and Macau. Only when a free and democratic system has been implemented on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will the peace and security of Asia be ensured.

Q4:    If everything goes wrong and the situation gets out of control on both sides of the Strait between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, to the effect that military actions start, by what means and on whom, aside from the Taiwanese themselves, would you rely for your defense in such a war?

A:    All issues between the two sides of the Strait should be resolved by peaceful means. This is our firm and consistent position, as well as the expectation of the international community. The ROC announced the termination of the Period of National Mobilization for Suppression of the Communist Rebellion in 1991, renouncing the use of force to achieve national unification and intending to resolve difference through peaceful means. However, the Beijing authorities have never been willing to renounce plans or preparations for using force to resolve issues between the two sides. This has caused serious cross-strait tensions and is the key threat to the region's security. The international community should urge the Beijing authorities to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, use peaceful means to resolve disputes, and join in safeguarding stability in this region.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait and the security of the Asia-Pacific region are inseparable. Therefore, on April 8, 1999, at a meeting of our National Unification Council, I offered my idea on "establishing a mechanism for cross-strait peace and stability." Our hope is that both sides will achieve beneficial interaction through exchanges and consultations, promote bilateral relations and thus ensure the security and peace of both sides and the region.

In addition to stressing the close and inseparable linkage between the stability of the Taiwan Strait and the peace of the Asia-Pacific region, the ROC values our cooperation with the United States. For many years, the United States has made necessary defensive weapons available to the ROC. Exchanges in every area of economics, culture, science, and technology have continued to grow. In the foreseeable future, the cooperation in security between the Republic of China and the United States will still be one of the important factors for maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Q5:    The United States and other Western countries are fascinated by the huge market of the Chinese mainland. This will likely diminish their support for Taiwan. Does this mean that Taiwan's future will be gloomy?

A:    Acting in their own self-interest, many countries have in recent years strengthened trade relations with the Chinese mainland. That is understandable. However, we should not overlook the fact that trade relations between the ROC and other Western countries including the US are also very close. For example, the ROC is the seventh largest trading partner and export market of the United States. Currently, the ROC's total imports from the U.S. have varied from 1.3 to 1.6 times those of the Chinese mainland. Furthermore, if we examine the internal developments in the Chinese mainland, we see the emergence of many structural economic problems. Because the future overall development of the Chinese mainland is filled with many uncertainties, we should closely monitor any changes.

In contrast to the uncertainties on the Chinese mainland, development in Taiwan is quite stable. Taiwan is important for two reasons: its safeguarding of democracy and human rights and its important strategic position in the Western Pacific region. Most of the people in the world today value democracy and human rights and expect the Chinese mainland to do the same.

Democracy and human rights are important pursuits of countries throughout the world. The world also expects the same of the Chinese mainland. Over the years, we have promoted political democracy, actively participated in the international community, and greatly improved cross-strait relations. For these efforts we have gained the world affirmation. We believe the Taiwan experience can serve as a catalyst for the modernization and democratization of the Chinese mainland.

Taiwan is strategically located in the sea-lanes controlling maritime shipping in the Western Pacific region, and is thus important to the U.S., Japan, and South East Asia. Therefore, Taiwan plays a crucial role whether it be in the cross-strait relationship or in regional stability.

Q6:    In spite of the deep political rift between Taipei and Beijing, Taiwan's economy is heavily engaged in the economy of the People's Republic of China through investments worth billions of US dollars. This kind of involvement in the mainland makes Taiwan prone to economic blackmail by Beijing. How could you possibly prevent such a movement by Beijing's leadership?

A:    Investments on the mainland by Taiwan enterprises are gradually forming an upstream, midstream, and downstream network. Indeed, this has already exerted some competitive pressure on our economy. Therefore, we need to consider how we can maintain our competitive advantage and the autonomy of Taiwan's economy, during the process of developing economic and trade relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Fundamentally, the economies of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland are complementary, rather than competitive. I have proposed the policy of "patience over haste, steady progress over a long term" as the principle directing cross-strait relations. The goal is to establish reasonable regulations for investments on the mainland with a rational and moderate disposition. These regulations include limiting investments in areas of high technology and basic infrastructure, and conducting more scrupulous assessments and examinations of large-scale investment worth over US$50 million.

On the other hand, we have also promoted construction of science-based industrial parks to upgrade Taiwan's industry. At the present time, high-tech products account for over 40 percent of our exports. The ROC government has also initiated the privatization of state-run enterprises and encouraged the private sector to participate in public construction, in order to create more domestic investment opportunities for enterprises. Hopefully, enterprises will "leave their bases in Taiwan," so that Taiwan's economy will continue to grow.

Q7:    The Chinese mainland is struggling with many serious economic and social problems, as there are growing numbers of jobless people and shrinking reserves of foreign exchange. The Beijing government may feel forced to devaluate the renminbi to avoid major economic difficulties and the resulting social unrest. Wouldn't such a devaluation of the renminbi cause a serious economic backlash for Taiwan?

A:    The Chinese mainland imposes many regulatory measures on foreign exchange. Thus, even if the renminbi is allowed to depreciate, we do not expect the situation to get out of control, because the economies of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland are complementary, rather than competitive. Although a devaluation might place certain mainland products in price competition with ours, an increase of exports from the mainland would actually increase demand for intermediate products from Taiwan, therefore, Taiwan's exports would not be markedly affected.

However, expectations that the depreciation of the renminbi could possibly cause the New Taiwan (NT) dollar to fall, which would have a direct or indirect destabilizing effect on our foreign exchange and stock markets. Therefore, we will take steps to explain to our citizens that a devalued renminbi will not significantly impact Taiwan's economy. The fluctuations of the NT dollar and the renminbi are not necessarily related. However, a problem of concern is whether the depreciation of the renminbi will affect the financial situation of Taiwan businessmen on the Chinese mainland, which in turn, may affect Taiwan. We are fully prepared for this possibility.

Q8:    Would the ROC still be interested in purchasing German submarines?

A:    We have discussed this issue with your government for quite some time; however, your government, wary of Beijing's attitude, has not yet approved the sale of submarines to the ROC. Beijing has deployed more than a hundred old and new submarines in the East China Sea. In such a vast area, it is questionable that the number of submarines we could purchase would be adequate to defend Taiwan on a submarine-to-submarine basis. Moreover, countering submarines with submarines is a rather difficult defense strategy, the effectiveness of which requires further consideration.

總統接受德國之聲專訪(88.7.9)

李總統登輝先生今天接受「德國之聲」錄影專訪。總統分別就兩岸關係、港澳問題、我國對外關係及未來發展等，作深入而明確的答覆。

「德國之聲」總裁魏里希（Dieter Weirich）偕該台亞洲部主任克納伯（Gunter Knabe）及記者西蒙嫚索（Simone de Manso Cabral）下午由行政院新聞局局長程建人陪同，到總統府專訪總統。

「德國之聲」是世界第三大廣播公司，下午的訪問內容將於德國當地時間今年七月廿五日晚間九時在該臺的英語衛星頻道向全球播放，隨後將陸續以其他語言，在該台的廣播頻道向全球播送。此外，專訪內容也將在德國「週日世界報」（Welt am Sonntag）刊登。

總統答問內容為：

（1）問：臺灣的經濟成就為舉世所欽羨，另一項印象深刻的成就則是近年來臺灣成功的民主化。然而北京政府卻視臺灣為「叛離的一省」，這也正是兩岸關係長期緊張以及中共對臺造成嚴重威脅的主因。您如何因應這項危機？

    答：我要就歷史及法律兩方面來答覆。中共當局不顧兩岸分權、分治的事實，持續對我們進行武力恫嚇，的確是兩岸關係無法獲得根本改善的主要原因。歷史的事實是，一九四九年中共成立以後，從未統治過中華民國所轄的臺、澎、金、馬。我國並在一九九一年的修憲，增修條文第十條（現在為第十一條）將憲法的地域效力限縮在臺灣，並承認中華人民共和國在大陸統治權的合法性；增修條文第一、四條明定立法院與國民大會民意機關成員僅從臺灣人民中選出，一九九二年的憲改更進一步於增修條文第二條規定總統、副總統由臺灣人民直接選舉，使所建構出來的國家機關只代表臺灣人民，國家權力統治的正當性也只來自台灣人民的授權，與中國大陸人民完全無關。一九九一年修憲以來，已將兩岸關係定位在國家與國家，至少是特殊的國與國的關係，而非一合法政府，一叛亂團體，或一中央政府，一地方政府的「一個中國」的內部關係。所以，您提到北京政府將臺灣視為「叛離的一省」，這完全昧於歷史與法律上的事實。面對臺海兩岸的情勢發展，我們將持續慎重推動兩岸間的交流，積極促成彼此對話與協商；並繼續促進我們民主制度的完善，追求穩定的經濟成長；同時積極加強與國際社會的接觸，以保障我們的生存發展。

我們相信從交流中凝聚互信，從互信中營造穩定的關係，是化解危機的最有效途徑。臺灣與大陸應當發展出互惠與互利的雙贏關係。

（2）問：宣佈臺灣獨立似乎並非實際可行，而北京「一國兩制」模式則不為臺灣大多數人民所接受。在以上兩種路線間，是否有折衷的方案？如果有，其內涵為何？

    答：剛才已經說得很清楚，中華民國從一九一二年建立以來，一直都是主權獨立的國家，又在一九九一年的修憲後，兩岸關係定位在特殊的國與國關係，所以並沒有再宣佈臺灣獨立的必要。

解決兩岸問題不能僅從統一或獨立的觀點來探討，這個問題的關鍵是在於「制度」的不同。從制度上的統合，逐步推演到政治上的統合，才是最自然、也是最符合中國人福祉的選擇。現在，中華民國可說是華人社會中首先實現民主化的國家，我們正努力在中國邁向現代化的過程中，扮演更積極的角色。因此，我們也希望中共當局能早日進行民主改革，為民主統一創造更有利條件，這是我們努力的方向，我們要維持現狀，在現狀的基礎上與中共維持和平的情況。

（3）問：香港在回歸中國大陸後，成為一「特別行政區」的處理模式，以及今年十二月澳門由葡萄牙交還中國大陸，都可能被中共視為是和平接收臺灣問題的預演。就世界其他國家觀點看來，這似乎不失為一個可解決中國問題，以避免區域危機的可行方案。您認為如何？

    答：中國問題影響區域安全的根本原因，不在於港澳的回歸，也不在於臺灣是否回到中國，中華民國在臺灣並不是任何一個國家的殖民地，這是與港澳不一樣的地方，關鍵的問題是，大陸過份強調民族主義，在制度上沒有施行民主。大陸不僅曾對我文攻武嚇，且從未放棄以武力犯臺，並在國際上處處打壓我方，此種蠻橫霸道的作風，無助於推動和諧的兩岸關係，也不利於保持亞太地區的穩定。一個強調民族主義的大陸又在軍事上不斷擴張，很自然的引起其他鄰近國家的疑慮。長久的解決之道應該是以民主取代極權，這樣才能化解地區的緊張。

大陸對港澳所承諾的「一國兩制」模式，對臺灣並無絲毫的吸引力。主要原因是「一國兩制」互相矛盾，違反民主的基本原則，又否定中華民國的存在。大陸雖想將「一國兩制」的港澳模式套用於我方，但臺灣不是港澳，港澳原為殖民地，中華民國是主權獨立的國家，兩者有根本的不同。未來兩岸只有分別施行自由、民主，才能真正確保亞洲的安全與和平。

（4）問：海峽兩岸的緊張關係倘不慎導致雙方採取軍事行動，您將以何種方式，以及依靠臺灣本身之外之何國，以為防禦？

    答：兩岸之間的問題，我們強調應當用和平的方式解決，不要用武力。這是我們一直努力的目標與堅持的立場，也是國際社會的期望，中華民國在一九九一年已宣布終止動員戡亂時期，不再以武力方式來達成國家統一的目標，我們要以和平的方式解決問題。但大陸當局始終不願放棄以武力解決的企圖及準備，這是造成兩岸緊張，區域安全受到威脅的關鍵所在。國際社會應當督促中共放棄對臺使用武力，以和平方式解決爭端，共同維護這個地區的穩定。

臺海情勢與亞太地區安全及和平是密不可分的，因此，本人於今年四月八日在國家統一委員會中提出「建構兩岸和平穩定機制」的理念，希望兩岸透過協商及交流方式，達到良性互動，並推展雙方關係，進而確保兩岸及區域間的和平與安全。

除了強調臺海安定與亞太和平不可分的關係外，我國也非常重視與美國的合作。這些年來，美國一直提供臺灣防衛所需要的軍事裝備，兩國在經濟、文化和科技方面的交流也不斷成長。在可見將來，臺灣與美國的安全合作關係仍然是維持臺海安定的重要因素之一。

（5）問：美國及其他西方國家都十分垂涎於中國大陸的廣大市場，也因此無可避免的降低他們對臺灣的支持。這是否代表臺灣的未來將因此而更加黯淡？

    答：近年來世界各國基於本身的利益考量，而與中共加強建立經貿往來的關係，我們可以理解。但臺灣與美國及其他西方國家的經貿關係，也十分密切，不容忽視。如以美國為例，臺灣是美國第七大貿易伙伴，也是美國第七大出口市場。截至目前為止，臺灣向美國購買的商品總額，是大陸向美國進口總額的一．三倍到一．六倍。此外，從大陸內部的發展來看，也有很多問題存在，內部結構性的經濟問題接連發生，因此，其未來整體發展仍具有相當的不確定性，值得注意。

相對於大陸的不確定性，臺灣的發展相當穩健。臺灣的重要性在於兩方面：一是對民主與人權的維護；二是西太平洋的重要戰略地位。現在大家普遍重視民主與人權，對大陸的期望也是如此。而「民主」、「人權」是世界各國所追求的目標，也是國際社會對大陸的普遍期望。近年來我們推動民主政治、積極參與國際社會、努力改善兩岸關係，贏得國際的肯定。因此，臺灣經驗在催化大陸現代化、民主化過程中可以發揮積極的功能。此外，臺灣的地理位置正好控制西太平洋的海線交通，對於美國、日本及東南亞國家非常重要。所以，臺灣不論在兩岸關係或區域穩定上都扮演重要的角色。

（6）問：雖然臺北和北京雙方在政治上存在巨大鴻溝，但臺灣在中國大陸的投資卻有數十億美元之譜。如此多的投資將使臺灣有被北京在經濟上勒索的可能。您如何避免北京領導階層採取此種行動？

    答：我國企業在大陸的投資正逐漸形成上、中、下游的體系，對我國經濟確已造成若干競爭壓力。因此，如何在發展兩岸經貿的過程中，維持臺灣經濟的優勢與自主性是一個值得重視的問題。

一個根本的問題是，臺灣與大陸的經濟不是競爭性的，而是互補的。本人曾經提出兩岸關係應「戒急用忍、行穩致遠」的政策方向，主要以理性且溫和的態度，針對大陸投資做合理的規範，包括限制高科技、基礎建設等項目的投資，以及對五千萬美元以上的大型投資做更謹慎的評估審查。

另一方面，我們也加強科學園區的硬體建設，促進台灣內部產業的升級。目前，我國出口品中，高科技產品已佔百分之四十以上。同時，政府更進行國營事業民營化，及鼓勵民間參與公共建設，為企業創造更多的投資機會。希望能使企業「根留臺灣」，以壯大臺灣的經濟發展。

（7）問：中共正為大量失業人口所導致的經濟及社會問題所苦，因此北京政府可能被迫必須將人民幣貶值，以解決其經濟困難及社會問題。人民幣貶值是否會嚴重影響臺灣經濟？

    答：在中共對外匯仍有各種管制的情況下，即使人民幣貶值，應不致出現失控的現象。因為兩岸的經濟關係，處在互補關係並不是競爭關係，雖然人民幣貶值可能會使大陸某些產品與臺灣低價競爭，但整體而言，由於大陸出口增加後，對臺灣中間產品的需求會增加，因此，對我出口的影響並不會很顯著。

此外，人民幣貶值可能引起臺幣將跟著貶值的預期心理，直接或間接影響我國匯市及股市的安定。對於這一點，我們將積極加強宣導，使民眾了解，人民幣的貶值與否，對臺灣的經濟不會有太大的影響，臺幣與人民幣的走勢並無必然的關連性。不過有一點值得擔心的問題是，人民幣的貶值是否會影響大陸臺商的財務問題，連帶的影響到臺灣，對此我們也有充分的準備。

（8）問：貴國是否仍有意願購買德國的潛艇？

    答：這個問題已經和貴國政府討論很久，不過，貴國政府考慮到中共的態度始終不敢批准售予我國潛艇。中共在東海佈署了一百多艘新舊潛艇，在這廣大的海域中，我們如果採取潛艇對潛艇的方式來防禦臺灣，所購買的潛艇數量是否足夠是一個問題；同時，潛艇對潛艇的防衛策略是相當辛苦的，是否能夠充分發揮效用，需要再作檢討。